Saturday, July 16, 2011

Topic: Research Sources



National Map of
Registered American Citizens + Others:

National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC):
*Map of Registered Sex Offenders in the United States
(The map changes as NCMEC updates it. Past numbers are below)
(Apparently DEPORTED are still included)
((((2015-12-07 numbers are from a NCMEC map
also on their site but a different place. Why?
))))
NCMEC
Map Date
NCMEC
Registrants
Increase Since
Last Map
Increase
Since 2005
##
PFML
Registrants
Dif btwn
PFML NCMEC
2016-12-06859,5000.89%--%----
2016-06-17851,8700.96%55.2%805,781-46,089
2015-12-07843,680---53.7%726.030-117,650
2015-06-01843,2602.85%53.58%799,99843,262
2015-04-15---------799,041---
2014-12-15819,2185.45%49.20%779,579-39,639
*2014-6-3774,6000.67%41.08%795,205+20,605
2013-12-6769,4022.3%40.14%na..
2013-5-29751,5381.9%36.90%722,358-29,180
2012-12-11736,7171.9%34.18%na..
2012-7-11722,499(-2.3%)***31.60%604,550-117,949
2011-6-17739,8531.6%34.80%745,367+5,514
2010-12-17728,4353.3%32.70%690,073-38,362
2009-12-8704,777(-1.7%)28.40%na..
2009-6-14716,7507.8%30.54%636,940-79,810
2008-9-23664,7313.0%21.07%na..
2008-7-17644,8652.8%21.10%602,157-42,573
2007-11-15627,2174.1%14.23%na..
2007-5-16602,1893.8%9.70%614,424+12,235
2006-10-17579,9745.6%5.63%541,242-38,732
2005-5-10549,038NANA551,987+2,949

NOTES:
  • *** NCMEC Stopped reporting -those in prison- for states that previously indicated RSOs in prison. See prior maps for a list of states w/prison numbers.
  • ## PFML (Parents for Megan's Law): It appears PFML does its own calling of the states to get numbers, and it does it in June according to their website. So what we see above is not a perfect equating of NCMEC and PFML figures. I posted PFML figures as close to the relevant NCMEC number, but still we see major differences. SO we are again left to question numbers posted by the major players. Readers can decide which to rely on.
  • Should anyone need a copy of a past NCMEC map (PDF file) just send a request eAdvocate, we keep them on a separate disk.

eAdvocate
Note: Does eAdvocate believe NCMEC map numbers? Not on your life, in 2006 this commentary explains why: Double/Triple/Quadruple Counting of the number Registered Sex Offenders. And notice how Congress REMOVED requiring states to report numbers publicly (Last link S-1086-ES)! However, these are the numbers quoted by most folks, to further damage the image of registrants.

Helpful Research Sources:

eAdvocate's 2006 chart on Double Counting, Warning Message Compliance, and More for 50 States

How many sex offenders really live among us? Adjusted counts and population rates in five US states Ackerman, Levenson, and Harris 2012

National Estimates of RSOs in the United States: Is double Counting a Problem Ackerman 2014 Abstract

Research about Criminal Justice Issues:

SOL Research.org Research on sex offender laws and their effects on people and society

Survey of State Criminal History Information Systems, 2008 (Page 5 raises questions about the number of sex offenders nationally)

Mapping Software:
Used for Residency Laws

In this article "State police website lists sex offenders" is the following comment:
It also has a mapping feature that allows the user to enter an address and the location of sex offenders within 500 feet to 5 miles of that address are displayed on a map that's linked to information capsules providing a sex offender's name, address and more.
The comment fails to recognize all of the following about addresses, and therefore can report something incorrectly.

NOTE: Mapping software that does exist, maps from one point to another, all these programs DO NOT take into consideration the SIZE, SHAPES and POSITION of real estate properties with respect to one another. Because they DO NOT consider that, there will always be a argument on properties that are on the fringe of a specific distance (1,000 ft 2,000 ft etc.).

Where you have seen the police prepare a map of where folks cannot live (i.e., circles around schools etc) they are not precise, they suffer the same failures as mentioned above. Perfection does not exist, and given that truth, there is but one option.

Pay a company to develop such software for a given area, but it will not be abled to be used elsewhere. For the entire state, not possible because new parcels are mapped daily and they would have to be added. A monumental task.

Given residency laws are usually written with the verbiage "from the closest points of the two properties" that means the mapping program MUST consider the SIZE, SHAPES and POSITION of real estate properties with respect to one another. It cannot be done with perfection which would be needed in a court of law.

Various Articles About Sex Offender Issues:

US: Sex Offender Laws May Do More Harm Than Good (Human Rights Watch 9-11-2007)

Why Sex Offender Laws Do More Harm Than Good (ACLU NJ)


For now, have a great day and a better tomorrow.
eAdvocate (BACK to the Top Page)

1 comment:

Daughter's Fallen Hero said...

Also I don't think they would have adjusted the results to show registered citizens that may have moved from a lifetime state.

I moved from California, in 2014, but still appear on the state wide list but not under any zip code.